A couple weeks ago, Athletic Club Boise was announced as making the jump from USL League One up to the Championship for the 2027 season. With the announcement, Kartik Krishnaiyer from Beyond the 90', asked a very simple question, with a less than simple answer. "Why is a team paying an expansion fee to jump divisions when an open sporting ladder is supposedly right around the corner?"
Looking around the world, at teams that hover in the middle of their division for extended periods, I have to wonder if that plays into their thinking and Kartik's article suggests as much. Going down divisions can be simple. Getting back up can be much more of a challenge. By putting themselves into the Championship early, they get to see the level of competition before the promotion/relegation arrangement gets started. So when pro/rel makes its way to the USL pyramid, they're ready to compete, at a minimum, at the Championship level and not have to work their way up from League One. It does have other ramifications which Kartik discusses in detail, but where you start in the pyramid can go a long way to where you stay in the pyramid depending on how you spend.
Which gets me to the actual point of this article, which you've likely already guessed was going to be more Indy Eleven-centric based on the title.
Indy Eleven have been a USL Championship team since 2018. For nine seasons, the Indy Eleven have been considered by many to be one of the premier organizations in the league, despite its less than consistent results and playoff appearances. Of the eight previous seasons in the league, Indy has made the playoffs half of the time, but have been bounced from the playoffs in the first round in three of the four seasons (2018 - Louisville 4-1; 2023 - Charleston 5-0; 2024 - Rhode Island 2-3), with the lone exception being the 2019 season where the team made the Eastern Conference Final. Indy's ability to make this year's playoffs could push them just above or just below .500 in their ability to play games beyond the league season.
And yet, this year's team feels like it's not fully prepared to be in the USL-C, despite its tenure and its current spot in the table. They currently sit in 7th place in the Eastern Conference, but with a roster and some results that give off League One vibes. In fact, this season, thanks to the U.S. Open Cup and the Prinx Tires USL Cup, Indy have played a League One team four times this year; Union Omaha twice, Fort Wayne, and Forward Madison. In those games, Indy lost to Union Omaha twice, drew Fort Wayne after conceding in 2nd half stoppage time, and beat Forward Madison for a 1W-1D-2L record. All three teams are currently in a playoff position, so maybe Indy is a fringe USL-C playoff team, but a solid League One playoff team? Indy's struggles this past weekend with Miami as some key components of the "first team" level players have continued to be beaten by the injury bug highlighted Indy's lack of elite depth at all positions.As I've stated a few times this year, I've been told that Indy has the lowest salary in the league. "Per club policy, terms of the deal will not be disclosed" is Indy's standard language when it comes to player contracts, but the rumor is that Indy's total team salary is $1.2M (whereas I've heard that Loudoun is at $1.8M and Tampa is at $2.2M). There are a couple of things that interest me about that value:
- I have to assume that the midfield veteran triumvirate of Blake, Lindley, and Quinn, and Dick might all be making at least $100k each based on their league value (transfermarkt has them all higher than that number). Which means that the rest of the team is working at the league minimum. Rendon's transfermarkt value is also high, so I'm not sure how that's possible without the entirety of the rest of the team working second jobs (or housing benefits on top of the salary?), so the vets might be making less than my assumption.
- That value rings a bell for me, because Peter Wilt conveyed to me that Indy's inaugural season in 2014 was (drumroll...) $1.2M. I'm positive that the amount has increased in the 13 seasons, but if the rumors are correct, the number has again dropped back down to inaugural season levels. Based only on inflation numbers, Indy's $1.2M salary in 2014 would need to be at $1.8M today to get the same spending value. Yet we all know that USL-C now is a much better, and more expensive, league than NASL then, so Indy's current 7th place in the table is really kind of impressive. Currently punching above their weight based on salary, but Indy should probably be spending closer to $2M to have an overall roster that can legitimately compete with the top teams in the League. Easy to say when it's not my money.
So the question that comes to my mind is "why"? Why is Indy spending so much less now than they were likely spending just a few seasons ago? Why hasn't there been any kind of stadium update from the team in over two years? Why did Indy lose very good parts of their front office staff last year en masse?
Why does it feel like Indy is operating at a League One level?
It doesn't seem like Ersal's personality to willingly drop down a level to League One, but he's also not seemingly making many outward steps to stay within USL-C or prepare for a potential step up to the future USL Premier, which will require Division 1 standards. Detroit and Pittsburgh have plans in place to get their stadiums to Premier level, Louisville City's stadium already meets the capacity requirement, and North Carolina is on hiatus this year to prep for Premier. So teams are already preparing for the Premier league launch two years from now in 2028. However, Indy's Eleven Park seems fitting that it was intended to be located on a former cemetery because all outward indications are that the project is dead, with no announced plans in two years. After the groundbreaking in 2023, the demolition of the Diamond Chain buildings took place, but everything ground to a halt in 2024. Carroll Stadium, as currently arranged, can seat 10,000 to 12,000 depending on the utilization of the grandstands and the layout of "temporary" stands. Carroll could probably be further expanded with temporary stands to get to 15,000 (the Division 1 requirement), but that would continue to feel like lipstick on a pig.
So if Ersal and Indy Eleven seemingly aren't preparing for USL Premier, and have continued to decrease salaries within USL-C to the point where Coach McAuley and the current roster are overachieving based on their respective league-wide salary, is Ersal planning to be in League One without making the mirror action of Boise? The team hasn't actively announced a plan to go to League One, but is that the plan? Obviously, nobody in the club has said anything even close to this to me. This is just a "what if?" exercise for me. An exercise that I can't immediately decide isn't a possibility.
The recent round of MLS to Indy discussion actually helps Ersal in this regard. It gives him an excuse if/when the club drops levels or, potentially, fails altogether and shutters. Ersal can claim (maybe rightfully) that Mayor Hogsett's 2024 actions made it difficult to attract the highest level players and, just as importantly, significant level sponsors when nobody knows if the team will be around. While some cities can support multiple professional soccer teams, it's doubtful that Indianapolis is one of them. So Ersal has an "out" when he decides to stop losing money on this venture and closes shop. "The Mayor began the downward spiral" might not be 100% accurate, but there is a definite point in the history of Indy Eleven, from April 2024 when the mayor announced his plans to pull the funding of Eleven Park from Ersal and work towards an MLS team, that things haven't seemed "right" with the club.
"Conflict arises when expectations exceed reality." When I wrote that last August, my closing statement of the article was:
The expectation is that Indy will be competing for Championships in a world class facility. The reality is that Indy has been a club with middling results and above average announced attendance, but is struggling to come to grips with the fact that all outward signs point to Indy playing forever in Carroll Stadium or failing and ceasing to be.
In the subsequent 13 months, I have now began to wonder if there isn't another caveat on the table, which is a drop in leagues to League One. This would allow Ersal to continue to have a professional soccer team on his resume, but at a much lower financial burden. A financial burden he's probably closer to spending anyway based on this year's salary. Every so often though, the team could overperform and get promoted back up to the Championship, but in either case, Carroll Stadium is still an "acceptable" stadium.
Unless, of course, my other idea for financial stability that includes moving the team to Grand Park comes to fruition. Though, actually both ideas could come into play since the Grand Park Master Plan includes a 10,000 seat stadium, which would work for either a Championship or League One level team.
I know many fans hated my idea of a Grand Park-based Indy Eleven, but what would be your thoughts of a League One-based Indy? Are the remaining fans really "XI 'til I die" no matter the league or level, or would that be the final straw? Would an Indy Eleven team that bounced between the Championship and League One because that's the salary level that Ersal was willing to spend be acceptable?
My guess is that Ersal has always had First Division aspirations, but at some point, time and money and a rug-pulling mayor may have become too much for him to handle. Time may tell us whether a League One Indy Eleven is the goal or just the result.



















































